ChatGPT’s growth is stalling, and that’s a real problem for OpenAI’s IPO plans

ChatGPT isn’t the unstoppable juggernaut it was a year ago. According to fresh data from Sensor Tower, the app is seeing a massive spike in uninstalls — up 132% year-over-year in April. That number was even worse in March, hitting 413% year-over-year, right after OpenAI announced its Pentagon deal in February.

Now, before you panic, ChatGPT is still adding users overall. But the pace is undeniably slowing. In January, monthly active users grew by 168%. By April, that had dropped to 78%. That’s still impressive for most apps, but for a product that was practically synonymous with AI last year, it’s a noticeable deceleration.

The uninstall spike is interesting because it suggests a growing segment of users are trying ChatGPT, deciding it’s not for them, and leaving. The Pentagon deal seems to have accelerated this — a lot of people, especially in tech circles, were vocal about their discomfort with OpenAI cozying up to the military.

What does this mean for OpenAI’s rumored IPO? If I were an underwriter, I’d be nervous. Investors love growth stories, but they hate stories where growth is clearly peaking. A 78% growth rate is still enviable, but the trajectory is pointing down, not up. And with rivals like Google’s Gemini, Anthropic’s Claude, and a swarm of open-source models nipping at ChatGPT’s heels, the competition isn’t getting any easier.

OpenAI has a few levers it can pull. The paid tiers (Plus, Team, Enterprise) are growing, and that’s where the real money is. But the free tier is the top of the funnel, and if that funnel is shrinking, it’s going to be harder to convert new users into paying customers.

I also wonder how much of this is just natural saturation. ChatGPT launched in late 2022 and had a meteoric rise. Every product hits a ceiling eventually. The question is whether OpenAI can find a second growth curve — maybe through enterprise deals, API usage, or new product lines — before the IPO window closes.

For now, the numbers are clear: ChatGPT’s rocket ride is leveling off. OpenAI needs to figure out its next move, and fast. Because the market won’t wait.